Fund Your Utopia Without Me.™

02 November 2012

The October Jobs Report: More Big Lie

  


First things first, in February 2009, the Civilian non-institutional population was 234.739m.  The civilian labour force was 153.716m.  There were 141.748 million Americans employed in the United States and the labour force participation rate was 65.6%.   The unemployment rate was 8.1%.
In October 2012, the Civilian non-institutional population was 243.983m.  The civilian labour force was 155,641mThere were 143,384m Americans employed in the United States and the labour force participation rate was 58.8%.  The unemployment rate is now 7.9%.
Between February 2009 and October 2012, the civilian non-institutional population grew by 9.244 million adults; yet, 1.723 million fewer Americans were working.  In the last year alone, 1.1 million Americans left the work force.

In August, the US economy added 96,000 and the unemployment rate went from 8.3% to 8.1%.  In July, the US economy added 163,000 jobs and the unemployment rate went up to 8.3% from 8.2% in June when only 80,000 jobs were created.  Go figure.

Somehow...in a economy growing at a miserly 1.3%...873,000 people managed to find jobs.  Of course, 582,000 jobs were part-time jobs, which the Left used to say weren't "real jobs."  The addition of
873,000 jobs, which, according to CNBC, is “the highest one-month jump in 29 years.”  That would have been in November, 1983...when the GDP was 8.5%.  Once again, the annualised GDP rate for Q2 in 2012 was 1.3%.
 
If the labour force participation rate was constant, the U-3 rate would be 10.7%.  

By the way, at a rate of adding 114,000 jobs per month, we wouldn't return to full employment until 2025.   114,000 jobs per month would be great...if we were living in the late 1950s.  We need twice that many just to maintain current employment.  A robustly growing economy requires job creation in the range of 300,000+.  Take a look at the number of jobs that were being created during the Reagan Recovery when GDP was 7-8%.
In October, 369,000 Americans dropped out of the workforce altogether.

Finally, and before we turn to the report data, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke just embarked on QE-Infinity because:


 "If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate...We will be looking for the sort of broad-based growth in jobs and economic activity that GENERALLY SIGNAL SUSTAINED IMPROVEMENT IN LABOUR MARKET CONDITIONS AND DECLINING UNEMPLOYMENT.  The U.S. unemployment rate has stayed above 8 percent for 43 consecutive months - the longest such period since the Great Depression of the 1930s.  Although the unemployment rate in August fell to 8.1% from July's 8.3%, THE DROP OCCURRED FOR ALL THE WRONG REASONS -- 368,000 FEWER AMERICANS WERE LOOKING FOR WORK AND THE LABOUR PARTICIPATION RATE FELL FROM 63.7% TO 63.5% -- ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE SEPTEMBER 1981. If labour participation had remained at July levels, the unemployment rate actually would have risen.  The Federal Reserve is, of course, well aware that THE UNEMPLOYMENT SITUATION IS FAR, FAR WORSE THAN WHAT IS BEING CAPTURED IN THE OFFICIAL HEADLINE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE of 8.1%. THE GOVERNMENT KNOWS FULL WELL THAT THE TRUE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, ONCE WORKFORCE PARTICIPATION RATE MANIPULATIONS ARE NETTED OUT, IS CLOSER TO 19%."


If the employment picture was truly improving, Ben Bernanke would never have embarked onto the uncharted waters of QE-Infinity.  Well, I shouldn't say the waters are uncharted as the ships of the states of Weimar Germany, Mugabe's Zimbabwe, Yugoslavia, Argentina, and others have been destroyed on the shoals of debt monetisation.

U-6, which counts part-timers, who want full-time work, and the discouraged, is 14.7% and has remained unchanged.  If the underemployed (people working a jobs below their skill-sets) are included, the U-6 hits the high teens or low twenties.  All combined, there are about 23 million Americans unemployed or underemployed.

Among the major worker groups:

Nationally, the U-3 rate for whites was 7.0% unchanged from October.  The unemployment rate for adult white men remained unchanged at 6.6%, for adult white women, it increased from 6.5% in September to 6.3% in October, and unemployment amongst white teenagers remained unchanged at 20.6%.

Nationally, the U-3 rate for blacks is 14.3%, an increase from 13.4% in October. The unemployment rate for adult black men dropped to 14.1% from 14.2% in September, unemployment rate for black women increased to 12.4% -- up from 10.9% in September, and black teenaged unemployment increased to 40.5% - up from  36.7% in September.

Nationally, the U-3 rate for Hispanics was 10% in October up from 9.9% in September  The unemployment rate for Hispanic men increased to 8.3% in October from 9.9% in September, the unemployment rate for Hispanic women decreased to 9.5% from 9.8% in Septemeber, and the Hispanic teenage unemployment rate increased to 28.9% from  27.8% in September.
 
The unemployment rate for Asians 4.9%, an increase from 4.8% in August. 

In February 2009, there were 2.647 million Americans, who had been unemployed for a period of longer than 27 weeks, and the percentage of the unemployed who were unemployed for a period of more than 27 weeks was 22.4%.

In October 2012, there were 5.002 million Americans, who had been unemployed for a period of longer than 27 weeks, and the percentage of the unemployed who were unemployed for a period of more than 27 weeks was 40.6%. 

In other words, there were 2.355 million more workers suffering long-term unemployment of 27 weeks or more in October 2012, and a 88.969% increase in the percentage of long-term unemployment than when Obama started “working to put the middle class back to work” in February, 2009.

02.09: 2.647 million

10.12: 5.002 million


That’s a 88.969% increase in the number of Americans, who have been unemployed for an average of 27 weeks or more.

BUT, the unemployment rate for government workers went down to 4.3% as a result of 934,000 new hires.

Good news, good news, good news! /s



Who will rid us of this meddlesome priest?




OK, onto the business of the day.....

I ran the numbers comparing January, 2009, Ocotober, 2012.  Also, because of the "unexpected" report this morning, I have left up August's numbers and compared them to September's data.




Civilian non-institution population:  234,739m
Civilian labour force:  153.716m
Employed:  142.099m
Employment-population ratio: 61.3
Unemployed:  11.616m
Not in labour force:  81.023m
Not in the labour force, but who want a job now:  5.62m
Part-time, but want full-time job:  8.038m
Participation Rate:  65.5%
Average Weeks Unemployed:  19.8
Unemployment rate:  7.6%



Civilian non-institutional population:  243,983 m
Civilian labour force:  155,641m
Employed:  143,384m
Employment-population ratio:   58.8
Unemployed:  12,258m
Not in labour force:  88,341m
Not in the labour force, but who want a job now: 6.427m
Part-time, but want full-time job:  18.923m
Participation rate:  63.8%
Average Weeks Unemployed:  40.6
Unemployment rate:  7.9%


Percentage Change from Jan 2009 to Oct 2012 :

Civilian non-institutional population:  +3.938% increase
Civilian labour force:  +1.252% increase
Employed:  +0.904% increase
Employment-population ratio: -4.078% decrease
Unemployed:   +5.527 % increase
Not in labour force:  +9.031% increase
Not in the labour force, but who want a job now:   +14.359% increase
Part-time, but want full-time job:   +135.419 % increase
Participation rate:  -2.595 % decrease
Average Weeks Unemployed:  +105.051% increase
Unemployment rate:  +3.947 % increase



Hey!  Did someone say "War on Women"???  I've got ya a "War on Women."   Check it out:


In January 2009, the number of women employed was:  67.007m

In October 2012, the number of women employed was: 
65.316m

In January 2009, the number of unemployed women was:  4.845m

In October 2012, the number of unemployed women was:
5.523m

The percentage change in the number of women employed between January 2009 and October 2012 has been a DECREASE of 2.524%.

The percentage change in the number of women unemployed between January 2009 and September 2012 has been an INCREASE of 13.99%.


 "Our growth rate is measly [so what did you expect?]"

- Austan Goolsbee, former Obama economic adviser


Measly growth rate?  Yeah, I guess you could call it that.  **eyeroll**  But, can we at least get it to hurry up so that we can get rid of this imbecile?  Seriously.  Who in their bloody mind would hire and expand with Black Jesus (h/t David Axelrod) as CEO of the country?



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